President George W. Bush promised that a child born at the beginning of his administration would be able to buy a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle as their first car. President Obama proposed that we deploy 1.5 million plug-in battery vehicles by 2015. Electric platform vehicles are going to be required to meet ambitious global climate change targets such as a 76% reduction from 2005 levels by 2050.
However, these vehicles will be more expensive than advanced gasoline vehicles. While lower fuel costs on a cents/mile basis can offset additional vehicle costs, 2015 may be too early to market either option commercially. However, the electric options can be more competitive as gasoline approaches $4+/gallon in the future1.
If the fuel cell system manufactured cost is about $50/kW and the hydrogen storage system is about $13 to 17/kWh, then fuel cell vehicles would be about $5000 to $7000 more expensive than a gasoline vehicle. The current DOE assessment for fuel cell system costs when mass produced in quantities of 500,000 is $60/kW2 and that 5000 psi and 10,000 psi hydrogen storage tanks meet the above values respectively3. Thus sufficient progress has been made on these component costs for automobile manufacturers to consider early marketplace entry by 2015. In fact Toyota, Honda, Daimler and GM have made public announcements that they plan to have tens of thousands of fuel cell vehicles available by 20154 and demonstrate 5000 hour fuel cell system durability to provide the public with a reliable product.
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