Thursday 24 June 2010

In a big shift, electric cars are just around the corner

IRVING -- Electric vehicles are coming to Texas soon, and along with them a vastly different experience in buying, owning and driving a new car.
With two automakers preparing to roll out the first mass-market, plug-in electric autos this year, the auto industry, retail electricity providers and government agencies are moving to make it easier for consumers to embrace the environmentally friendly technology.
Speakers at an electric-vehicle conference here said the looming introductions of the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf, which their manufacturers say will be delivered this year, are the vanguard of a movement that has enormous promise for Texas drivers living in pollution-plagued urban areas.
The basic technology to make electric vehicles practical "is already here today," and Texas is the perfect market for it, said Robert Nelms, director of the Institute for Intelligent Energy Systems at the University of Texas at Dallas.
Chevrolet says it will begin delivering the Volt, an electric car with a backup gasoline-powered generator, to buyers around December. Nissan plans to begin deliveries of its all-electric, 100-mile-range hatchback to the first U.S. buyers by year's end.
"We could see a significant [market] penetration of all-electric vehicles over the next decade," especially as the technology improves and consumers learn about it and become comfortable with the concepts, Nelms said.

Electric Vehicle Consumer Adoption Summit, Day One

Today was the first day, and as conference chair, I’ve had a hand in every session and been able to meet an interesting mix of thought leaders who really understand the electric vehicle space.
But even after devoting two full days to this event, the summit only breached the surface of what EVs are all about.
This is a great, deep dive for me – at our next summit we’re doing one session on EVs. And after what I saw this week, I can tell you there’s a whole lot more to explore. This article is a brief recap of the highlights, and I’ll do the same for day two in my next write-up.
The summit started strongly with a presentation from Marc Tarpenning, one of the co-founders of Tesla Motors. For those who don’t know Tesla, their Roadster really embodies the sex appeal of electric vehicles; it’s really sharp looking, has all the power you crave and of course, is very eco-friendly. However, there’s a six figure pricetag (News - Alert) with that, so it’s not going to recalibrate the balance of power any time soon, but it’s setting the bar high for what electric cars can strive for.
Marc gave us a lot to think about, and I could build this whole article around his comments. The key topics included why the time is right now for electric vehicles and why earlier entries like the EV-1 failed. Not being very technical, I really enjoyed Marc’s practical insights, especially as they concerned the global market opportunity for electric cars (including how important behavior change and attitude shifts will be to the success of this market.) I also enjoyed how he identified home-charging as a great opportunity for utilities to deploy smart grid/smart home solutions and make themselves a more active part of the electric car equation.

Battery Electric Vehicles vs. Hydrogen Vehicles

President George W. Bush promised that a child born at the beginning of his administration would be able to buy a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle as their first car. President Obama proposed that we deploy 1.5 million plug-in battery vehicles by 2015. Electric platform vehicles are going to be required to meet ambitious global climate change targets such as a 76% reduction from 2005 levels by 2050.
However, these vehicles will be more expensive than advanced gasoline vehicles. While lower fuel costs on a cents/mile basis can offset additional vehicle costs, 2015 may be too early to market either option commercially. However, the electric options can be more competitive as gasoline approaches $4+/gallon in the future1.
If the fuel cell system manufactured cost is about $50/kW and the hydrogen storage system is about $13 to 17/kWh, then fuel cell vehicles would be about $5000 to $7000 more expensive than a gasoline vehicle. The current DOE assessment for fuel cell system costs when mass produced in quantities of 500,000 is $60/kW2 and that 5000 psi and 10,000 psi hydrogen storage tanks meet the above values respectively3. Thus sufficient progress has been made on these component costs for automobile manufacturers to consider early marketplace entry by 2015. In fact Toyota, Honda, Daimler and GM have made public announcements that they plan to have tens of thousands of fuel cell vehicles available by 20154 and demonstrate 5000 hour fuel cell system durability to provide the public with a reliable product.